Effective 1 March 2026, South Africa introduced a 150% tax deduction on capital expenditure for electric vehicle (EV) and hydrogen vehicle manufacturing, alongside first-time EV buyer subsidies of up to R60,000 (approximately US$3,300). The measures are intended to support the country’s target of achieving 30% EV sales by 2030. However, ongoing grid instability and load-shedding continue to present challenges for EV adoption, increasing reliance on off-grid solar-powered charging infrastructure and adding to operating costs.

Morocco is strengthening its position within the global EV supply chain through the launch of a US$5.6 billion battery gigafactory, scheduled to begin production in 2026. The country aims for 60% of domestic vehicle production capacity to be electric by 2030, reinforcing its strategy to become a regional manufacturing and component-export hub serving European, African and Middle Eastern markets.

Egypt is accelerating efforts to electrify urban mobility, including the gradual phase-out of petrol-powered tuk-tuks in favour of electric alternatives. Supporting this transition, local manufacturer Kader has introduced an electric motorcycle priced at approximately US$1,800, signalling growing government and private-sector efforts to develop an affordable domestic e-mobility ecosystem.

Electric motorcycles in Kenya accounted for approximately 15.3% of new motorcycle registrations in 2025, significantly exceeding the widely recognised 15% market-adoption tipping point. The government’s National E-Mobility Policy has introduced supportive measures including green number plates and tax incentives for EVs. However, policy guidance on charging and battery-swapping interoperability remains limited, representing a potential constraint to long-term ecosystem development and market standardisation.

The Indian government has extended PM E-DRIVE incentives for electric two-wheelers until 31 July 2026, but at a reduced subsidy level, while extending incentives for electric three-wheelers through March 2028. The move signals a clear policy preference for commercial and income-generating vehicle segments – including e-rickshaws, cargo three-wheelers and last-mile logistics fleets – where utilisation rates and economic returns are strongest. India’s EV market continued to expand in FY26, with 2.55 million EVs sold, representing 8.64% of total vehicle sales and annual growth of 25%.

Policymakers are increasingly prioritising fleet and commercial-use cases over private consumer adoption. This reinforces the investment case for asset finance, leasing, fleet management and charging/swapping infrastructure serving commercial transport operators rather than individual consumers.

Battery Smart became India’s first battery-swapping operator to surpass 100 million battery swaps, supported by a network of more than 1,569 stations and approximately 281,000 batteries in circulation. The company also announced a INR 100 million (US$ 1.06 million) driver welfare fund. India’s organised battery-swapping market, estimated at approximately US$48 million in 2025, is forecast to grow more than tenfold to around US$518 million by 2034. The top three operators – Battery Smart, SUN Mobility and VoltUp – currently account for an estimated 70–75% of organised market revenues.

The industry is moving from pilot-stage deployment toward infrastructure-scale growth. Market concentration around a small number of operators suggests that network density, operational efficiency and ecosystem partnerships are becoming key competitive advantages. This could accelerate consolidation while lowering perceived investment risk within the sector.

AAfrican e-mobility company, Spiro, secured a further US$55 million investment from China’s New Trails Capital to expand its battery-swapping network, manufacturing capacity and energy infrastructure. The raise follows a US$215 million equity round earlier in 2026, a US$50 million debt facility arranged in February with support from Afreximbank, Nithio and Africa Go Green Fund, and a US$100 million equity raise completed less than a year ago. Total disclosed funding now exceeds US$557 million. Spiro reports operations across seven African markets, supporting approximately 100,000 electric motorcycles, more than 2,500 swap stations, over 30 million battery swaps and more than one billion carbon-free kilometres travelled.

The scale and frequency of fundraising suggest growing investor confidence in battery swapping as a viable infrastructure business. Notably, the February debt facility indicates increasing confidence that recurring battery subscription revenues can support non-dilutive financing, potentially creating a pathway for infrastructure-style capital to enter the sector.

Ampersand has opened its battery-swapping network in Rwanda and Kenya to third-party manufacturers, including Wylex, creating what it describes as Africa’s first open battery-swapping ecosystem. The approach contrasts with Spiro’s vertically integrated model, where vehicles, batteries and charging infrastructure are largely controlled within a single proprietary network.

The industry’s next phase may be shaped less by vehicle adoption and more by standards and interoperability. A key strategic question is emerging: will Africa’s battery-swapping ecosystem evolve around open, interoperable networks—similar to telecommunications infrastructure—or around proprietary, vertically integrated platforms? The outcome could significantly affect market competition, capital requirements, customer adoption and long-term industry structure.

KOKO Networks, one of Africa’s largest clean cooking companies, entered administration on 1 February 2026, creating significant uncertainty within Kenya’s clean cooking market. Prior to its collapse, KOKO reportedly served an estimated 1.3–1.5 million households through approximately 3,000 bioethanol fuel dispensing points located within neighbourhood retail outlets. In the aftermath, five Kenyan clean cooking companies – including BURN, Feion, EcoBara, Ignis Innovations and Faith Engineering – collectively sought approximately US$43 million in investment as part of Kenya’s wider US$15.5 billion investment promotion effort.

The fundraising activity reflects an industry-wide effort to demonstrate that the collapse was company-specific rather than indicative of broader market failure. Firms are increasingly highlighting diversification of revenue streams, business model resilience and multiple customer value propositions as investors become more cautious about business models reliant on a single product or revenue source.

Nigerian cooling company Koolboks secured US$11 million in blended financing to support expansion of its solar-powered refrigeration business. The package includes approximately US$5 million in equity financing co-led by KawiSafi Ventures, Aruwa Capital and All On, alongside debt financing support from bpifrance and FFEM. Koolboks combines solar refrigeration with thermal ice-battery technology capable of maintaining cooling for up to four days without grid electricity. The company has also developed a broader ecosystem comprising PAYGo financing, lease-to-own arrangements, a buy-now-pay-later platform (Koolbuy), remote repayment enforcement capabilities and appliance refurbishment services.

The transaction highlights growing investor interest in productive-use energy solutions that directly support income generation and business resilience. The success of the raise also suggests increasing confidence in integrated business models that combine clean technology with embedded finance and after-sales services, rather than relying solely on equipment sales.

India is increasingly focusing on rooftop solar deployment within the micro, small and medium enterprise (MSME) sector, where electricity typically accounts for an estimated 10–20% of operating costs. Two innovations are gaining particular traction: the Renewable Energy Service Company (RESCO) model, which eliminates upfront capital requirements, and demand aggregation approaches that reduce procurement costs through collective purchasing. A pilot by WRI India within the Yamunanagar plywood manufacturing cluster reportedly reduced rooftop solar system costs by approximately 7% through aggregation mechanisms.

The next phase of rooftop solar growth may be driven less by technology improvements and more by business model innovation. Aggregation and service-based financing approaches could substantially expand solar adoption among smaller enterprises that have historically been constrained by capital costs and transaction complexity.

India’s digital commerce ecosystem continues to expand rapidly, supporting the formalisation and growth of millions of small businesses. PhonePe has surpassed 50 million registered merchants, while programmes such as AB InBev’s “Swadhaar” initiative and the Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC) are helping digitise kiranas and microenterprises with annual turnover below INR 3 crore. More broadly, India’s digital public infrastructure (“India Stack”) now underpins a digital economy estimated at approximately US$402 billion, while social commerce is projected to grow from US$29 billion toward US$144 billion over time. WhatsApp and other messaging platforms increasingly function as informal-commerce infrastructure for microentrepreneurs.

Digital infrastructure is becoming an increasingly important enabler of financial inclusion, market access and business formalisation. For climate and clean energy companies serving microenterprises and low-income customers, integration with digital payment systems, commerce platforms and embedded financial services may become as important as the underlying technology itself.

India has achieved its target of establishing 10,000 Farmer Producer Organisations (FPOs) under its national Central Sector Scheme, creating one of the world’s largest farmer aggregation programmes. The scheme provides support of up to INR 1.8 million (US$19000) per FPO for management costs over three years, matching equity grants of up to INR 1.5 million (US$15,800) and credit guarantee coverage of up to INR 20 million (US$211,000) to improve access to finance.

India is demonstrating how farmer aggregation can be scaled through a combination of institutional support, equity grants and risk-sharing facilities. The model addresses a persistent challenge for smallholder agriculture: achieving sufficient scale to access markets, technology and formal finance. Similar approaches could hold lessons for African smallholder value chains where fragmented production remains a key constraint to productivity and investment.

India’s green hydrogen strategy has reached an important milestone, with the Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) signing procurement agreements for approximately 724,000 tonnes of green ammonia annually under the SIGHT programme. The contracts cover 13 fertiliser facilities and achieved discovered prices ranging from INR 49.75–67.74 per kilogram, significantly below prevailing international prices of approximately INR 110 per kilogram. The programme is expected to save an estimated US$2.5 billion in foreign exchange over the next decade through substitution of imported grey ammonia in non-urea fertilisers.

The significance is less about technology and more about market creation. India is demonstrating how government procurement can accelerate demand for emerging green commodities, helping bridge the transition from demonstration projects to investable industrial markets. The development strengthens India’s position as a leading emerging-market test case for the commercialisation of green hydrogen derivatives.

Fairtrade has updated Living Income Reference Prices for cocoa, increasing reference prices to US$2.68/kg in Ghana (+26%) and US$2.80/kg in Côte d’Ivoire (+20%). In a further shift towards farmer income support, Fairtrade will require that 40% of the Fairtrade Premium be distributed directly to farmers as cash payments from October 2026.

The development reflects growing recognition that sustainability interventions must deliver tangible income improvements for producers, not just productivity gains. The shift towards direct cash transfers signals increasing emphasis on farmer agency and household welfare outcomes, alongside traditional investments in community infrastructure and services. Similar approaches may increasingly influence funding models across agricultural and climate-resilience programmes.

Emerging evidence from both Africa and India suggests that competitive advantage is increasingly moving away from vehicle manufacturing and towards ownershhip of the underlying energy ecosystem. Developments including Spiro’s use of debt financing to fund network expansion, Battery Smart’s achievement of 100 million battery swaps, the growth of Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) models, and major investments into battery storage and energy infrastructure all point towards the same trend: long-term value is increasingly concentrated in battery ownership, energy distribution and customer financing rather than vehicle sales.

Recent market developments suggest that operational excellence and service infrastructure are proving more important than first-mover technology advantages. In India, legacy manufacturers such as TVS and Bajaj have strengthened their market positions through dealer networks, service capabilities and consumer trust, while some early EV pioneers have struggled to maintain momentum. Similar dynamics are becoming visible in Africa, where network density, battery availability and financing solutions increasingly determine customer adoption and retention.

Policy and market trends increasingly favour high-utilisation commercial vehicles over personal-use vehicles. India’s decision to extend electric three-wheeler incentives until 2028 while reducing support for electric two-wheelers reflects a growing recognition that commercial vehicles offer faster payback periods, stronger utilisation and more resilient business models. Across Africa, where electric motorcycles are predominantly used by income-generating transport operators, demand is similarly driven by operating economics rather than consumer preferences.

Recent trends suggest that electric mobility demand is becoming increasingly driven by economics rather than policy incentives. In India, EV demand continued to expand despite reduced subsidy support, supported in part by rising fuel costs and improving vehicle economics. However, adoption remains concentrated in specific geographies and vehicle segments, while rural markets continue to face affordability and infrastructure constraints. In contrast, Africa’s electric mobility market has largely developed without significant consumer subsidies, providing a clearer test of underlying market demand.

A divergence is emerging between public and private capital markets. In India, public market investors are placing greater emphasis on profitability, operational discipline and sustainable growth, rewarding firms with clearer pathways to positive cash flow. In Africa, development finance institutions and impact investors continue to provide substantial funding for charging and swapping infrastructure, albeit with greater concentration among a limited number of market leaders.

Governments and companies across both regions are pursuing localisation strategies designed to reduce import dependence, strengthen domestic manufacturing and improve cost competitiveness. Examples include battery manufacturing investments, vehicle assembly programmes and component localisation initiatives. Despite these efforts, battery cell production remains heavily dependent on global supply chains, particularly Asian manufacturers.

A critical debate is emerging around the future structure of battery-swapping markets. Some operators are pursuing open, interoperable platforms that allow multiple manufacturers to access shared infrastructure, while others continue to favour vertically integrated ecosystems. The direction ultimately adopted by policymakers could significantly influence the economics and valuation of battery-swapping businesses.

The continued growth of the clean cooking sector highlights the importance—and risks—of carbon finance. Carbon revenues can reduce the cost of clean cooking technologies significantly, helping products reach low-income consumers that would otherwise be unable to afford them. However, the collapse of KOKO Networks demonstrates the vulnerabilities associated with business models that depend heavily on carbon revenues and government approvals. When a carbon-dependent business fails, the consequences extend beyond the company itself, affecting households, retailers and broader distribution ecosystems.

Investors and sector stakeholders are likely to place greater emphasis on business models that generate sustainable customer revenues independent of carbon markets. Over time, there may be increased preference for:

• Companies with stronger consumer economics and diversified revenue streams.
• Carbon revenues that complement, rather than underpin, commercial viability.
• Compliance-market credits and regulatory-backed mechanisms that offer greater certainty than voluntary carbon markets.

A common pattern is emerging across sectors as organisations seek to serve highly fragmented customer bases. Whether through farmer cooperatives, MSME clusters, cooling hubs, women’s distribution networks or digital commerce platforms, aggregation is increasingly used to pool demand, reduce transaction costs and improve access to finance and services. Similar approaches are visible in India’s MSME solar market, farmer producer organisations (FPOs), ONDC, Solar Sister distribution networks and cooling-as-a-service deployments.

Individually, many low-income customers and small enterprises are too costly to serve. Aggregation creates scale where none naturally exists. As a result, value increasingly accrues not only to technology providers but also to those controlling the aggregation layer—whether through digital platforms, distribution networks, financing channels or service providers.

A broader policy and market debate is emerging around the value of open versus proprietary systems. India’s digital public infrastructure model – including UPI and ONDC – has been explicitly designed to prevent platform lock-in and maintain broad market access for small businesses. Similar debates are now emerging in sectors such as battery swapping and embedded energy services, with policymakers and industry participants weighing the benefits of interoperability against the incentives for private investment in proprietary platforms.

The balance between open networks and vertically integrated platforms may become one of the most important determinants of market structure. Open systems can accelerate innovation, competition and inclusion, while closed ecosystems may capture a greater share of economic value but risk creating concentration and barriers to entry. This tension is likely to influence investment returns, business models and policy development across multiple sectors.

Although operating in different institutional contexts, India and many African markets are increasingly arriving at similar underlying solutions for serving low-income households and microenterprises. In India, state digital public infrastructure, formal financial systems and grid connectivity play a central role in customer acquisition, financing and delivery. In Africa, businesses often rely on last-mile distribution networks, off-grid technologies, pay-as-you-go financing and blended capital structures.

Despite these differences, both regions are converging around a common architecture: affordable access enabled through service-based business models, supported by IoT-enabled monitoring, embedded finance and recurring customer engagement.

Recent developments across agricultural markets highlight an important structural distinction between export-oriented commodity chains and domestically anchored value chains. Commodities such as cocoa and tea continue to expose farmers to international price volatility, demand fluctuations and institutional risks that are largely beyond their control and difficult for smallholders to hedge. In contrast, India’s dairy sector demonstrates the resilience of a domestically anchored value chain, supported by strong local demand and cooperative ownership structures that return a substantial share of consumer spending directly to producers.

The key lesson is not technological but structural. Farmer resilience appears increasingly linked to market architecture rather than productivity alone. Value chains that are geographically closer to end consumers, supported by domestic demand and stronger farmer participation in value capture, may offer more stable and inclusive income opportunities than export-dependent commodity systems.

Evidence across multiple markets suggests that farmers are increasingly diversifying away from traditional commodity production in search of more stable and attractive income opportunities. Examples include tea producers expanding into dairy and horticulture, as well as cocoa-growing households pursuing alternative livelihoods where agricultural returns no longer justify the risks associated with continued cultivation.

These shifts should be viewed as more than isolated business decisions. They represent a market signal about where farmers perceive future income security to lie. When producers begin reallocating land, labour and capital away from longstanding crops, it often indicates deeper structural pressures within those value chains rather than short-term market fluctuations.

Historically, agricultural development efforts have focused on improving productivity and market access. However, recent developments suggest that the more pressing challenge may be income stability. Farmers are increasingly comparing opportunities across sectors—not simply within agriculture—and making decisions based on expected returns, risk exposure and income predictability.

Agricultural sectors that cannot provide competitive and resilient livelihoods may struggle to retain producers over time. This has implications not only for food systems but also for climate and development programmes that rely on continued participation by smallholder farmers.

As economic opportunities diversify in rural areas, agricultural value chains increasingly face competition for labour and entrepreneurship. Whether through dairy, horticulture, services, mining or non-farm enterprises, farmers are demonstrating greater willingness to shift resources toward activities perceived as more resilient or profitable.

Future agricultural interventions may need to focus not only on increasing yields or improving market access, but also on strengthening the overall attractiveness of farming as a livelihood. Programmes that improve profitability, reduce volatility and increase farmer control over value creation are likely to become increasingly important.